April catchup

I have been thinking about what I would want to write about, and whether I would muse about UK, European, American or international politics. After some thought I decided to muse about all of these things.

Firstly, the UK is holding local elections on May 3 everywhere excluding London. I was in Edinburgh for work earlier this week and the bill boards were plastered with election adverts from all the parties. However, the slogan that jumped out of me was an item of graffiti on the side of a petrol station. An anarchist had tagged "Democracy is Overrated." I am sure they missed the irony that Churchill had once said something similar, but followed up with "until one has tried the alternatives." Scottish politics is strange. On one level it is parochial and self centered, and is quite happy to have high social spending without having to pay for it. At the same time the SNP claims the oil is Scotland's - ignoring that the oil majors are not - and that an independent Scotland would repeat the Irish tiger economy. The SNP has never come clean that this is only as a result of massive EU fund transfers, and took 20 years. Looking at the polls I think it is quite possible that the SNP will emerge from the election as the largest party but without a majority. The other parties will refuse to work with them, leaving the SNP to either govern alone or the need to hold another election 28 days later. Primarily an SNP win would be a protest vote against an unpopular government rather than a positive vote for independence.

European affairs this week are dominated by the French Presidential election. I hope for the French that Le Pen doesn't make the second round, but I fear he will. In terms of over all victor I hope Sarko becomes President as he alone seems to be telling the most truth to the French electorate. I read that at a common view of France is that it can't be reformed, but simply moves between revolutions. I don't think the V Republic will end, but at the same time something needs to be done to restore French economic growth and self belief in a positive direction. The French Anti-Americanism of recent years has long roots - as discussed by Justin Webb at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6547881.stm - restoring French economic growth / social pride and integration and a Sarko Presidency might just turn France around to a more grown up approach to the country with which it has the closest cultural values.

American affairs for me aren't summed up by the tragic events at VTech, but by the silence of those Democrat Senators who aren't facing re-election for four or six years on gun control. The Dems have decided that gun control is the fifth rail as far as their chances of winning the Presidency, but this is supine. They could develop a platform that defends the right of the citizenry to protect themselves, whilst stressing the first part of the Second Amendment with regard to a well regulated milita and that this means that weapons such as AK47s and semi-automatics pistols have no place in the hands of the private citizen. In addition gun shows would not be allowed to sell weapons for take home on site. Will this happen - no. Should it - yes. However, for me the bigger story from America is the Washington scandle around the Attorney General and his inability to clearly explain why he sacked the US Attorneys. I read two good articles on this - one at Salon and the other at Slate.

http://salon.com/news/feature/2007/04/20/gonzales/

http://www.slate.com/id/2164652?nav=tap3

Should the President sack the AG - yes. Will he, unlikely.

Internationally, well Iraq is still a mess and the chances of it getting better soon are slim. I came across an interesting fact yesterday, although am not sure whether it is true. Namely, there are around 45,000 private contractors / mercenaries in Iraq and this is welcomed by the Bush Presidency as a) the US army doesn't have that manpower to deploy in Iraq and b) it hides the true body count.

April has been a busy month for S and me. We are continuing with our wedding plans, and these seem to be going okay. My newish job is going well and I am getting busier.

Goose Green 25 years on and the need for Britain to once again launch a military response

25 years on from Goose Green Britains are again being held by a hostile foreign power. As then British opinion is lazy, and hostile to the government all be it for different reasons.

The Iranians have held the Marines for long enough. Irrespective of whether this was planned from Tehran or a local commander acting on his own initiative in an attempt to gain a gold star from the regime, it is time to threaten a military response. Special Forces landing and destroying a port, or if it is known where the sailors are, rescuing them is the option that should be selected. Missile strikes would do more harm than good. Whilst the risks would be high, a successful mission would undermine the Iranian regime and the West is sound enough financially to ride out oil spiking to over $100 a barrel as we are far less dependent on it than in the mid 1970s.

It is time to deal with the Iranian regime before the situation gets even more out of control.

Outcome of this situation could well be influenced by history. Brown will be PM within six months, and so it is just possible that a repeat of January 1981 will happen in that Tehran will wait until the new leader is installed before releasing the hostages. If this doesn't happen then Brown might well resort to military action to show he is a strong leader not to be messed with.

Finally, it is time for the Iraqi government to get off its butt and go to the UN and complain about the violation of it's territorial waters by a hostile power that is supporting part of the insurgency.

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I have posted this comment on the Guardian Comment is free website so it should be interesting to see how the people who post respond.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/hossein_derakhshan/2007/04/hossein_derakhshan_1.html